●Preface
Study Region
Summary
1Development in Central Asia / 01
1.1Economy and Society / 02
1.1.1Macro Economy / 02
1.1.2Humanity and Society / 06
1.1.3Regional Cooperation / 08
1.1.4Development Policy / 08
1.2Energy and Power / 09
1.2.1Energy Development / 09
1.2.2Power Development / 13
1.3Sustainable Development Ideas / 16
1.3.1Development Concept of Global Energy Interconnection / 16
1.3.2Central Asian Energy Interconnection Promotes Sustainable Development in the Region / 18
2Energy and Power Development Trend and Outlook / 21
2.1Energy Demand / 22
2.1.1Primary Energy / 22
2.1.2Final Energy / 24
2.2Power Demand / 28
2.2.1Drivers of Power Demand Growth / 28
2.2.2Power Demand Outlook / 28
2.3Power Supply / 31
3Development Layout of Clean Energy Resources / 35
3.1Distribution of Clean Energy Resources / 36
3.1.1Hydro Energy / 36
3.1.2Wind Energy / 37
3.1.3Solar Energy / 38
3.2Layout of Clean Energy Bases / 40
3.2.1Hydropower Bases / 40
3.2.2Wind Power Bases / 40
3.2.3Solar Power Bases / 41
4Power Grid Interconnection / 43
4.1Power Flow / 44
4.1.1Balance of Supply and Demand / 45
4.1.2Power Flow Scheme / 46
4.2Grid Interconnection / 48
4.2.1Overall Pattern / 48
4.2.2Interconnection Scheme / 50
4.3Key Interconnection Projects / 52
4.4Investment Estimation / 56
4.4.1Investment Estimation Principle / 56
4.4.2Investment Estimation Results / 57
5Comprehensive Benefits / 59
5.1Economic Benefits / 60
5.2Social Benefits / 60
5.3Environmental Benefits / 61
5.4Political Benefits / 63
6Development Outlook of Achieving the 1.5℃ Temperature Control Target / 65
6.1Implementation Paths / 66
6.1.1Clean Replacement / 66
6.1.2Electricity Replacement / 67
6.1.3Carbon Sequestration and Reduction / 68
6.2Scenarios and Schemes / 68
6.2.1Energy Demand / 68
6.2.2Power Demand / 70
6.2.3Power Supply / 72
6.2.4Power Grid Interconnection / 74
6.2.5Comparative Analysis / 74
Policy and Mechanism / 77 References / 80
本報告是《中亞能源互聯網研究與展望》的英文版。
本報告是亞洲能源互聯網研究繫列成果之一,深度剖析了各國資源條件、經濟社會以及能源電力現狀與發展趨勢,提出了清潔能源基地與區域能源互聯網建設方案,評估能源互聯網投資規模。內容共分7章:第1章介紹中亞經濟社會和能源電力發展現狀,分析中亞實現可持續發展和能源轉型具有的優勢和面臨的挑戰,提出能源互聯網發展思路。第2章展望中亞能源電力轉型發展趨勢,綜合考慮資源、人口、經濟、產業、技術、氣候和環境等因素,提出能源電力預測情景,能源供應向清潔主導方向發展,消費向電為中心方向發展,清潔能源裝機規模快速提升,電力供應向清潔化方向發展。第3章綜合風、光、降水等氣候數據以及地理信息、地物覆蓋等數據,研究中亞清潔能源資源分布和大型發電基地布局。第4章根據清潔能源資源稟賦和空間分布,以及各國家的特點與定位,分析區域電力流向,研究提出電網互聯總體格等