●Contents
Preface
Chapter 1 Why do We Conduct the Study 1
1.1 Research Significance 1
1.2 Research Status and Development Dynamic Analysis 5
1.2.1 Research on the Law of Public Emergency Response Behavior 5
1.2.2 Research on Public Emergency Behavior Guidance Strategy 9
1.2.3 Research on Development Trends 13
Chapter 2 Hazardous Chemical Leakage Accidents and Emergency Evacuation Response from 2009 to 2018 in China 20
2.1 Introduction 20
2.2 Data and Methods 22
2.2.1 Data Sources 22
2.2.2 Methods 23
2.3 Characteristics of Leakage Accidents of Hazardous Chemicals 25
2.3.1 Characteristics of Time Distribution of HCLAs 25
2.3.2 Characteristics of Spatial Distribution of HCLAs 28
2.3.3 Categories of HCLAs 32
2.3.4 Typical HCLA Analysis 34
2.4 Analysis of Various Categories of HCLAs 38
2.4.1 HCLAs in Road Transportation 38
2.4.2 HCLAs in Pipeline Transportation 40
2.4.3 HCLAs in Factories (Industrial Parks) 42
2.4.4 HCLAs in Civilian Residence 43
2.5 Analysis of Evacuation Caused by HCLAs 45
2.5.1 Evacuation Situations Triggered by HCLAs 45
2.5.2 Evacuation Process and Level Analysis 48
2.5.3 Analysis of Factors Affecting Evacuation Levels 51
2.6 Framework of Integrated Management of Hazardous Chemicals 53
2.6.1 Management of HCLA 53
2.6.2 Emergency Protection Action in HCLA 60
2.7 Conclusions 63
Chapter 3 Shelter-in-place Risk Assessment for High-pressure Natural Gas Wells with Hydrogen Sulphide 74
3.1 Introduction 74
3.2 Risk Assessment of Sheltering in Place 77
3.2.1 Probability Estimation of Individual’s Emergency Response Action 77
3.2.2 Health Consequences Analysis 78
3.2.3 Acceptable Risk Level 79
3.3 Case Study：Xuanhan, China 80
3.3.1 Preliminaries 81
3.3.2 Results of Shelter-in-place Risk Assessment 87
3.4 Conclusions 91
Chapter 4 Dynamic Emergency Route Planning for Major Chemical Accidents: Models and Application 96
4.1 Introduction 96
4.2 Modeling of Dynamic Emergency Route Planning for Major Chemical Accidents 101
4.2.1 Formulation of Emergency Network 101
4.2.2 Objective Functions Considering the Impact of Secondary Disasters 103
4.2.3 Application in Emergency Response Risk Assessment 105
4.3 Algorithm for Emergency Route Planning 107
4.3.1 Model Ⅳ 108
4.3.2 The Proposed Method 109
4.3.3 Disposal Method in the Presence of a Bidirectional Arc 111
4.3.4 Correctness of the Proposed Algorithm 112
4.4 Computational Results 114
4.4.1 Introduction and Description 114
4.4.2 Illustration of Lemmas 4.2 and 4.3 116
4.4.3 Results for Major Accidents without Secondary Disaster Risks 117
4.4.4 Results of Dynamic Route Selection for Major Accidents with Secondary Disaster Risk 121
4.5 Conclusions and Future Research 125
Chapter 5 Simulation and Analysis on Characteristics of Sub-regional Evacuation Based on Individual Behaviors 132
5.1 Introduction 132
5.1.1 Evacuation Time 132
5.1.2 Empirical Calculation of Evacuation Time 133
5.1.3 Simulation Modeling of Evacuation 135
5.2 The Evacuation Simulation of the Residential Community 136
5.2.1 The General Introduction of the Residential Community 136
5.2.2 The Selection and Setting of Analog Parameters 139
5.2.3 Analysis of Evacuation Simulation Results 141
5.3 Comparison of Simulation Results of Different Evacuation Scale 144
5.3.1 Comparison and Analysis of the Different Evacuation Time 145
5.3.2 Comparison of Evacuation Rate 146
5.3.3 Comparison and Analysis of Space Utilization 147
5.3.4 The Comparison and Analysis of the Densities of People 149
5.4 Study on the Loading Characteristics of Evacuation Network in Sub-regions 151
5.4.1 Influence Factors on the Loading Time in Urban Evacuation Road Network 151
5.4.2 The Estimation Method of Evacuation Time in Sub-regions 153
5.5 Conclusion 156
Appendix 1: The optimal route planning results for each node based on Model Ⅰ and Model Ⅱ 159
Appendix 2: lti-objective optimization results of emergency route selected based on Model Ⅲ 161

本書從應急決策與優化的角度研究重大化工事故的區域疏散決策問題，使讀者了解區域疏散決策理論及優化方法。針對重大化工事故情景，以受災的核心承災體--公眾為研究對像，基於工程科學、社會科學、心理學等多學科交叉方法，研究公眾疏散行為特點及規律，構建區域疏散模型和評估疏散能力，設計區域疏散引導繫統，建立疏散路徑規劃及分配的多目標決策方法；從應急準備和應急響應角度設計區域疏散方案和給出區域疏散分析和決策建議；並以案例或模擬的形式對所提出的模型和方法進行驗證。