前言

自“十二五”時期以來，我國人口紅利逐漸消失，經濟增長從高速轉入中高速的新常態，“十三五”時期中國將進入由中等收入國家向高收入國家邁進的重要階段。根據國際經驗，成功邁向高收入國家並非一蹴而就，中國經濟發展在未來一段時期仍面臨嚴峻的挑戰。與此同時，“十三五”時期要確保全面建成小康社會的宏偉目標順利實現，該目標的出發點和落腳點是進一步保障和改善民生，增加人民福祉。雖然，“十二五”以來，我國已逐步建立較為完善的勞動力市場保障制度、養老保險體繫和基本醫療保險制度等民生保障制度，但現有社會保障制度依然面臨制度公平性、財務可持續性、制度運行效率等諸多問題。

“十三五”時期的經濟發展條件與快速增長時期迥然不同，尤其是人口、勞動力市場出現的新變化和新特點，如人口老齡化持續加速、勞動力從無限供給轉為相對有限剩餘、普通勞動力工資快速上漲、勞動力市場矛盾多發等問題。準確判斷和理解未來中國人口發展和勞動力市場變化趨勢，妥善應對人口結構變化和勞動力市場轉折所引發的挑戰是實現經濟持續健康發展的重要條件，是全面實現“十三五”小康社會宏偉目標的重要基礎。因此，本書將以“‘十二五’回顧和‘十三五’展望”為主題，分析“十二五”時期的人口、就業變化趨勢以及各類民生保障制度面臨的關鍵問題和挑戰，在總結相關領域國際經驗的基礎上，探討“十三五”時期如何通過完善各項社會制度實現更加充分的就業、更加均等的基本公共服務供給，從而形成新的經濟增長點，延續中國經濟增長奇跡。

本書作者長期從事人口理論、人口流動、勞動就業、社會保障等方面的研究，參與人口與發展、勞動就業、社會保障等領域的規劃和政策制定工作，能夠很好地將理論研究和實踐結合起來。各章作者分別回顧了“十二五”時期人口發展、人口流動、勞動力就業及勞動報酬的變化趨勢，繫統分析了**工資制度、養老保險和醫療保險制度改革發展歷程，並給出“十三五”時期的人口與就業發展戰略以及建設中國特色“福利社會”的相關建議。

Introduction

Since 12th Five-Year Plan executed, China’s demographic dividend has gradually disappeared. Chinese economy growth slowdown from a high rate to mid-high rate growth. China will enter into an important stage, where the country will move from middle-income country to high-income country. According to international experience, this is not easy. At the same time, the 13th Five-Year Plan requires to achieve a comprehensive “Well-off” society. The starting point of this goal is to further improve people’s livelihood, to increase people’s well-being. China has gradually built a comprehensive pension insurance system, a basic medical insurance system and security system in the labor market during 12th Five-Year period. However, the existing social security system is still facing many problems, such as unfairness, financial unsustainability and system inefficiency.

At “new normal” state, the Chinese economy will enter a new phase that is different from the high-speed growth pattern exhibited in the past, especially in population and labor markets, such as, rising elder population, relatively limited surpluses of migrant workers, rising labor wages etc. So, China’s economic development is still facing serious challenges during 13th Five-Year Plan period.Changing demographic structure and slowing down economic growth will also challenge the social security system at a higher level. In order to achieve a sustainable and healthy economic development, we need to understand the new features of Chinese population and labor market. The theme of this report is “12th Five-Year Review and 13th Five-Year Outlook”, which reviews the development of population and employment during the 12th Five-Year period, analyzes the key issues and challenges facing social policies, summarizes the related international experiences. This report also discusses how to perfect the social policy implementation to achieve more sufficient employment, more equal basic public services supply in the 13th Five-Year period, thus forming the new economic growth point to continue China’s economic miracle.

The authors of this report have not only long been engaged in the theory of population, migration flows, employment, social security and other aspects of the research, but also participated in many related fields of policy planning and formulation, so they can combine theoretical research and practice effectively. This report conducts theoretical and practical research in the trends of population, migration flows, employment, labor compensation and social security system comprehensively for the purpose of offering population and development strategy in the 13th Five-Year period.